The (genius/mentor/funny) man, who I worked for in the late 90s had a phrase that went along the lines of; “If you spot a gold-rush, don’t scrabble about in the dirt, sell shovels.”. The now infamous ‘dot com boom’ was at the KA stage of it’s resultant BOOM. The internet was alive with conversation and exchange, at the speed of thought. New ideas were coming to light all the time – sometimes on a several times a day frequency – and were all being bounced around things like forums, newsgroups , and chat clients like mIRC. These guys, were the provider of shovels.
My own experience of this –
I was obsessed at the time with a line of watches called the Casio WQV. A wrist watch with a digital camera built in. Pre camera phone, pre facebook, very cool. It turned out, that there were thousands of other people around the world equally obsessed with these watches, and having recently built and deployed a forum on this very site, (complete with a ‘watchcam’ category) a large number of watch cam fans, found their way to the forum. As well as these guys, there was a large, exponentially increasing network of friends and associates, making frequent visits. The forum eventually became a victim of its own Not For Profit success and literally went into meltdown – I didn’t have the hours in the day to police the content, or fix the bugs. One night, it went *pop*. Properly.
Fast forward a bit to 2006. The birth of Facebook. The internet conversation, that looking back now, was being held by an absolute minority, was all of a sudden, joined by millions of new voices. The vast majority of non facebook conversation stopped within a few months. It was phenomenal to watch. Something that I’d been doing for around 10 years by this point, was now being done en masse. People other than a limited number of professional journalists, and the burghers of Geekville, were putting content, on the internet.
I think we are now, on the brink of a change. It reminds me of the time when the world started turning a bit sour for Microsoft. There was a time when Microsoft ruled the world. They were the unquestionable, untouchable supreme overlords of computing. Bill Gates smashed his original goal of “A computer, on the desk of every home in North America” by a staggering amount. You couldn’t conceive the use of another system being employed by anything close, to the same scale. You couldn’t see how anything could topple such a sturdy giant. The same could have been said of Nokia. They were a staggeringly successful company, who’s future looked mapped out for generations. Everyone, used Microsoft. Everyone used Nokia. Less than 10 years later and Nokia are a shadow of their former self, and whilst Microsoft is still quite huge (particularly in the corporate arena) others have taken the top spot for ‘go-to’ mass market computing, namely the iProducts, and Google – the number one device has outgrown the ‘every desk’ benchmark, it’s now in every pocket.
If we were to draw conclusions from the above story, we could summarise by saying that every big dog, has his day. Could the same be said of the big dog of social networking? Could we be on the brink of a Social Network gravity shift? Have Facebook reached their zenith, or are they still on the way up? Are consumers being fed enough innovation to remain faithful, or will the fiscal pressure to monetize on this recently floated, now very corporate super giant, get in the way of it being loved by it’s huge user-base?
Only time will tell. One thing is for sure – the world now needs A LOT of shovels.
Salient point, Matt. When I bet (and subsequently lost) who could blog 365 days / year, my internet viewing (… way-hey!) was primarily Facebook – however, the more I got into Blogging, the more I became aware of different information streams. Previously I subscribed to “Chips for tea nom nom nom” updates where now I appreciate the time people, like yourself, put into their Blog – the well crafted, personal mementos from a day shared with the citizens of the internet. Sticking your head above the parapet on Facebook and sticking your head above the parapet on a Blog are two different things – Facebook has had its day due to the people who post updates everyday, blogging will have a renaissance when people Blog everyday.
I might be getting carried away, but – Blogging could be the new Facebook? Yes, it would not mean the death of social media – but, thankfully it might be the death of “Chips for tea nom nom nom” updates?
Your I eagerly anticipate your weighted thoughts on this matter …..
Another excellent blog!! Thank you Matt. The future of Facebook does make me wonder, as does the ability to use it by external agencies to abuse the information gathered about its users. I often consider deleting my profile. x
Interesting stuff.. As I see it, it all boils down to relationships. There is rarely anything absolutely unique about companies (social media/hardware/software) but the way that they manage the relationships have a big effect on their staying power. FB has a tricky time ahead of it as it tries to reconcile the corporate requirements of investors, (make the best return on investment) whilst keeping the userbase happy, and not feeling like the commodity that they are. The next stage in the increasingly desperate battle to stay at the top is the “buy the competition” stage – lacking the innovation that marks the smaller companies, the big guys get their chequebooks out, and try to buy up the next big things – but I don’t even think that organisations like FB will even see the end coming – it will be something else that pulls the rug from under them, something small, out of left field, and propelled by a userbase that loves it. As an example – look at askfm.com – It’s a terrible site, that is probably going to get some very bad publicity soon (unmoderated teenage gossip/bullying) but it’s gone from nowhere to over 30M users in a few months – and the basis of that relationship seems to be “here’s a site, -do what the hell you like.” Can FB compete with that?
Great artical, I remember the Watchcam adventures. It was an odd concept and one which I think should be developed. I suspect technology has changed enough to get a decent photo resolution 🙂
One could argue that social media has always been since the invention of communication and it will always have its role in everydaylife for everyone. it was just websites forums and chatrooms. The technology changed
Facebook has seen better days, let’s face it. Personally I detest it though it’s used by the majority of the population on the planet, including myself as some people make arrangements for social events only on Facebook. This level of Internet interaction has taken away the need for phonecalls and letters. Did you ever have a penpal? I did and wrote to him 5 times a year for, well um… 1 year. I forget his name now I think about it. Facebook allows you to be lazy and nosey instead of interacting and asking how your friend is… you just read their status. It is also rather disturbing, the level of depth people go in to on Facebook. For example the other day, someone I am friends with posted a note to say how “they are no longer shaving their lady parts”. Seriously?! Did I and the Internet want to know that?
Twitter was an unexpected revolution in my eyes. It was a way to “microblog”. Now it is a mass marketing medium for corporations and a forum for opinions, tomfoolary and chit-chat. I enjoy Twitter. Mainly for news updates and grumping in to the Internet about what gets my goat.
Microsoft has seen better days and Google continues to grow and the less said about Apple the better. These technical giants were once shouting in the open and rather vacant universe. This universe has become condensed and has expanded to a multiverse. I don’t think it will be long before we start seeing a shrink as Google consumes all.
Very pertinent to me at the moment – I am using FB to publicise a fundraising event next week, but had already decided that once that is over, I am giving FB a big rest. There is nothing on there that engages me much.
There ARE elements I enjoy about it – being able to upload pix direct to show friends, being able to PM message people and indeed, being able to organise an event and invite people quickly and easily. (Also I have a serious Bejewelled Blitz habit 😀 )
But the actual ‘what are you up to’ bit is increasingly a platform for one’s more narcissistic friends and acquaintances or a vehicle for rehashing ancient memes.
And as Alison above mentions – ”the ability to use it by external agencies to abuse the information gathered about its users” is another massive concern. I’ve had my fill…..
“the demise of facebook?” you ask. No is the answer.
Its all about context.
Facebook is just one successful aspect of the, still relatively new, social media. In the mid naughties we all thought it was going to be either WAYN or Friends Reunited, Flickr or Picassa, MySpace or Facebook, Twitter or LinkedIn, and that was true for the time, some platforms fell by the wayside others flourished as we all suddenly realised how easy it was to stay in touch with random people we neither knew nor previously cared about. Now-a-days those of us that participate, willfully receive an unending stream of updates from individuals, corporations, media, celebrities, lifestyle magazines all informing an opinion on any number of subjects, across a number of platforms, whereas 10 years ago we all relied on a biased traditional media. What has happened is that different platforms now serve different feeds. I use twitter to have a go at right wing politicos and vent my socio frustrations, Facebook is there to stay in touch ‘over the garden wall’ with actual family and friends… and i believe that is how the curve is developing.
it is probably worth pointing out that our comfortable corner of Yorkshire isn’t representative of the “everyone” you mention at all. Facebook may have just about reached saturation point in Europe and North America but its use in Asia (India, Indonesia) rose by 20% in 2012. That is because Zuckerburg et al are focusing their attentions on expanding that particular market – 278million users- it is not with coincidence either that SE Asia is the emerging economic super power, its where the money is now, that is the market that is of interest to the investors.I dont see it being toppled any day soon, facebook is literally *the* common denominator in social media. I am not saying it is right, but there is no denying it has almost seamlessly integrated itself into our daily lives.
what we are actually facing is the demise of traditional media, the demise of the traditional high street and in many ways the demise of freedom of speech.
rock on.
Well – how very interesting that this study has just come out today: http://techcrunch.com/2013/02/05/pew-facebook-study/
Looks like the FaceBook whale has just started to slide down the hill*….. in case of tl:dr – one in five US users has dropped facebook, and over 60% say they are going to spend less time on it in the next year…
*It’s a poor metaphor, I know, but I couldn’t think of anything better at short notice.
If this was facebook, I’d have probably clicked like next to all of those comments. Some really interesting points. There seems to be a segregation thing going on – I’ve heard about the silo thinking thing before. Some people seem to be consciously associating different social channels as having different social functions; each containing a different community. There’s been a bit of chat over on facebook (ironically) on this topic, as a result of me sharing it..
Generally thought, there’s a lot more “I don’t like it but I’m stuck with it” than “I love it, I’m going to defend it to the hilt.”. Again, this reminds me a bit of Microsoft, circa 2003.
Since this thread started, someone gave me a newspaper clipping they’d taken from The Times. (yes, the actual hard copy version). Not really relevant, apart from to back up the ‘turning a bit sour’ theory – but certainly worth a read..
http://www.dragondrop.org/?attachment_id=5048
They could do a McDonalds on us though. A good few years ago, McD’s were despised. By extremists (but yea, haters gonna hate) – that’s a given, but it was starting to bubble up into the mainstream. The huge company was under attack. Mainly, environmental issues, animal rights issues, health issues – they were a favorite and quite an easy target for a lot of people to throw stuff at. You don’t seem to hear that (as much?) any more. They’ve busted some mad skillz PR moves on the global dance floor. Example being, they now have huge messages on the side of their trucks saying they recycle cooking fat to run said trucks. Clever. There’s a raft of PR turn around stories like that for McD’s. As a result – the haters gone and hated something else.
So, facebook bad press / bad vibe things floating around. Investors may well be saying “what are you doing about it?”. My guess is that any day now, we’ll see a Ronald McZuckerman character enter, stage right.
I think the haters still hate but decide to be blissfully ignorant… Like me.
Here is a list of corporations I hate in order:
1, Facebook
2, McDonalds
3, Microsoft
4, Apple
5, Starbucks
However, I am a user of them all. Does this make me a bad person?
Just as a follow-up – this excellent piece here does a full on flame of facebook and does a side by side comparison of it to Yahoo! http://oneblindsquirrel.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/beware-facebook.html?showComment=1363191456929#c8170208232214130072
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